Banking Regulation: Basel II/III and Statistical Modelling
Gareth Peters (Department of Statistical Science, University College London; London, UK)
This presentation will discuss the role that statistical modelling has played in the regulation of retail banks throughout the world, since the onset of the banking regulations known as Basel II. In particular basic properties of statistical models used in the context of what is known as the Advanced Measurement Approach will be discussed. The influence that statisticians should have in these areas when deciding capital reserves for banks and the significance of such decisions on the banking structure will be overviewed. This will be followed by some examples.
Handling risks and uncertainty in decision-making
Leslie Pendrill (SP Metrology, Sweden)
No measurement is perfect. This can mean that decisions based on measurement, for instance in the regulatory context, can be incorrect, particularly where the test result is close to a specification limit. Imperfect measurement - expressed in terms of limited reliability and finite measurement uncertainty - will mask to some extent the actual product dispersion of interest. This talk will review the current state-of-the-art of including measurement uncertainty in conformity assessment, where particular research challenges arise in qualitative and multivariate situations, for example, as arise in healthcare regulation.
Statistics and Regulation, Inside and Outside
Tony O'Hagan (Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield)
An industry regulator aims to place such restrictions on the industry's activity as will reduce or minimise the risk of undesirable consequences for society at large. Where there is risk there must be statisticians! Sometimes the statisticians are inside regulation, working for the regulator, and sometimes they are outside, working for companies needing to satisfy the regulator. Sometimes both.
In this talk, I will sketch some applications that I have been involved with, both inside and outside regulation, including nuclear power, food, water, pharmaceuticals and railways.
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