A popular belief among sportswriters and broadcasters says that a team that's been successful, should be expected to continue that way. It’s known as the ‘hot hand’ (aka ‘momentum’ or ‘streakiness’) and the effect is popularly accepted as being real. But almost every study that has looked for such an effect has failed to find one.
When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for President of the United States, he included a racist insult directed at those citizens who came to the US from Mexico. Apart from his words being abhorrent, it’s also a baffling strategy to follow for a candidate looking to reach the White House in the 21st century.
In last week’s Gold Cup semi-final between Mexico and Panama, Mexico escaped with a 2-1 extra-time victory. Like many recent CONCACAF games, a few referee judgment calls more or less decided the outcome. This game included an early red card to a Panama player, and a late penalty kick awarded to Mexico.
When the government says times are tough and cuts have to be made, we expect public opinion to swing in favour of higher taxes to prop up public spending on essentials like healthcare and welfare. In the last major recession in the early 1990s, the British Social Attitudes survey (BSA) tracked some fairly dramatic shifts in public opinion - concern for the unemployed shot up, as did support for ‘tax and spend’.
It's been another year of strong submissions for the Young Statisticians Writing Competition - our annual contest organised in partnership with the Young Statisticians Section of the Royal Statistical Society. Judging took place last month, which means we're now ready to announce the competition finalists.