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Quantifying the Bradley effect: an application to recent UK and US elections

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RSS local group meetings

Thursday 18 October 2018, 04:00pm

Location TR2, Herschel Building, Newcastle University

Speaker: John Fry (Manchester Metropolitan University)

We discuss the issue of systematic bias in Opinion Polls caused by Socially Desirable Response  - SDR – a phenomenon variously known as the Bradley Effect or the Whitely Effect. In quantifying the analogy between financial and political systems we show that the net result is that polls over-price the probability of Socially Desirable Responses. The effect is known to provide a good explanation of recent referenda results. Applications to the latest US and UK elections are also discussed.

Tea and coffee from 3.30pm

Organiser Name Kevin Wilson

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Organising Group(s) RSS North Eastern Local Group