Repeat victimisation counts and crime estimates

 
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Social Statistics Section

Monday 14 October 2019, 03:00pm - 05:00pm

 
Location Location: Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol St, London EC1Y 8LX

About the event:

Estimating the extent of repeat and multiple victimisation using data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW)

Joe Traynor (Centre for Crime and Justice, Office for National Statistics, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)

Tackling repeat and multiple victimization has become an important factor in reducing crime rates. There is an indication that the decreases in total crime since 1995 is due largely to a fall in repeat/multiple victimisation (ONS, 2013). However, there has been a paucity in the research and further analysis is needed to investigate the current estimates of repeat/multiple victimization for total and individual crime types. In cases of repeat/multiple victimisation the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) had until recently only included the first five incidents of a series in its estimate of the total number of incidents of crime in order to reduce the effects of sample variability. After an independent review (ONS, 2017), data is now capped at the 98th percentile to improve incident estimates for crimes with higher repeat victimization rates. Given the new methodology employed in the CSEW and the paucity of research on repeat victimization we aimed to investigate the current estimates of repeat/multiple victimization for total crime and individual crime types and how they have changed over time. Preliminary findings suggest that falls in repeat victimization were a major driver of falls in total crime since 1995 but that patterns over time varied by crime type and in recent years decreases in repeat victimization have stalled. 


Revising or removing the ONS cap on high-frequency victims

Sylvia Walby (City University of London, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.) and Brian Francis (Lancaster University, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)

The ONS places a cap on the number of crimes committed against high-frequency victims that are included in the crime estimates.  While the ONS have agreed that the cap of 5 has distorting effects, they have recommended that it not be removed but be replaced by a cap at the 98th percentile.  Capping is a form of one-sided winsorisation, which is known to produce bias.  In the field of violent crime, both caps have the effect of disproportionate exclusion of violence committed by domestic perpetrators (rather than strangers) and against women (rather than against men).  The current ONS argument for the cap is that it prevents undue volatility in the year-to-year trend.  But the inclusion of all crimes reported to the survey does not increase volatility if smoothing, such as a three-year rolling average is used.  Removing the cap and thus including all violent crimes would reduce gender bias in the statistics on violent crime, including domestic violent crime. 


Removing the repeat victimisation cap and violence trajectories in England and Wales

Andromachi Tseloni (Nottingham Trent University, Presenter, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.), Soenita Ganpat (University of Derby), Laura Garius ((Nottingham Trent University) and Nick Tilley (University College London)

According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), violence fell dramatically between 1995 and 2013/14. To improve understanding of the fall in violent crime, this study examines crime trends in England and Wales over the past two decades, by scrutinizing the trends between (a) stranger and acquaintance violence (b) severity of violence, (c) age groups, and (d) sexes. It draws on nationally-representative, weighted data from the Crime Survey for England and Wales, and examines prevalence, incidence and crime concentration trends, the last two with and without the former ONS repeat victimisation cap at 5 incidents per series. Whilst almost all capped violence trends follow changes in prevalence, most uncapped ones are driven by year-on-year changes in violence concentration. Removing the cap also resulted in different peak and dip years for stranger violence incidence rates and stranger violence incidence rates against men and greater but non-statistically significant volatility within some violence types. Overall crime capping at five incidents seems to affect the estimated patterns in stranger violence but not in acquaintance violence.

Places are free, but must be booked here:

 

 

Organiser Name Andromachi Tseloni

Email Address This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Organising Group(s) RSS Social Statistics Section

 

 

 

 

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