‘Multiple Systems Analysis for the quantification of Modern Slavery: Classical and Bayesian approaches’ by Bernard W Silverman

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Wednesday 13 November 2019, 05:00pm - 07:00pm

Location Location: Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol St, London EC1Y 8LX

Pre-meeting (DeMO) at 3 pm
Title: ‘An introduction to dual and multiple system estimation’
Presenter: Peter G M van der Heijden  Chair: Ioanna Manolopoulou


Discussion paper at 5 pm

Speaker: Bernard W Silverman (University of Nottingham, UK)

Multiple-systems estimation is a key approach for quantifying hidden populations such as the number of victims of modern slavery. The UK Government published an estimate of 10000–13000 victims, constructed by the present author, as part of the strategy leading to the Modern Slavery Act 2015. This estimate was obtained by a stepwise multiple-systems method based on six lists. Further investigation shows that a small proportion of the possible models give rather different answers, and that other model fitting approaches may choose one of these. Three data sets collected in the field of modern slavery, together with a data set about the death toll in the Kosovo conflict, are used to investigate the stability and robustness of various multiple-systems-estimate methods. The crucial aspect is the way that interactions between lists are modelled, because these can substantially affect the results. Model selection and Bayesian approaches are considered in detail, in particular to assess their stability and robustness when applied to real modern slavery data. A new Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian approach is developed; overall, this gives robust and stable results at least for the examples considered. The software and data sets are freely and publicly available to facilitate wider implementation and further research.

Preprint discussion papers available here

This event will be followed by a drinks reception

Registration alongside tea and coffee from 4.30 pm.

Attendance is free and open to all, whether fellows of the RSS or not, but pre-registration is required.

Preprint discussion papers available here

Organiser Name Judith Shorten

Email Address This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Organising Group(s) Discussion Meetings Committee (DMC).





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