A Very Unlikely Event

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Quality Improvement Section

Tuesday 04 November 2014, 04:00pm - 06:00pm

Location Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London, EC1Y 8LX

How likely is it that the Royal Statistical Society would be running an event based on the ideas of a world famous Fantasy author?

How likely is it that a Fantasy author would come up with an idea so important that it would inspire the Royal Statistical Society`s Quality Improvement Section Committee to run this event?

How likely is it that the author, Jasper Fforde`s, idea had not previously been thought up by the world`s statistical community, but nevertheless has the potential to transform both statistical thinking and business practice?

The idea is Expectation Influenced Probability. Is this a Fantasy? Jasper Fforde`s fans know very well that in his worlds almost anything is possible. But this is the real world, isn’t it? Can Expectation Influenced Probability really help provide explanation for events as diverse as the failures of Risk Analysis, and `Black Swan` events such as the Financial Crisis?.. & could it help stop them?

Speakers and Titles:

Expectation Influenced Probability & How I Discovered It
Jasper Fforde, author of the Thursday Next, Nursery Crime series, Shades of Grey, and Last Dragonslayer books.

Planning for the Unexpected: Expectation Influenced Probability and the Prediction of Black Swans
Tony Bendell, academic, management consultant & trainer, and author of `Building Anti-Fragile Organisations; Risk, Opportunity and Governance in Turbulent Times` (Gower July 2014).

Let`s Play a Game…
Roland Caulcutt, statistical consultant & trainer, and winner of the Greenfield Industrial Medal of the Royal Statistical Society.

There will also be a panel discussion including sector experts.

Registration is required - please use this booking form.

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Followed by a drinks reception

Organiser Name Tony Bendell

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