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CATEGORIES:Featured events, RSS discussion paper meetings
CREATED:20190715T130627
SUMMARY:Extended Discussion Meeting: Signs and sizes: understanding and replicating statistical findings
LOCATION:ICC Belfast, Northern Ireland
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:\n\nL. Held (University of Zurich)\n\n\n‘A new standard for the analysis an
d design of replication studies’\n\n\nA new standard is proposed for the ev
idential assessment of replication studies. The approach combines a specifi
c reverse Bayes technique with prior-predictive tail probabilities to defin
e replication success. The method gives rise to a quantitative measure for
replication success, called the sceptical p-value. The sceptical p-value in
tegrates traditional significance of both the original and the replication
study with a comparison of the respective effect sizes. It incorporates the
uncertainty of both the original and the replication effect estimates and
reduces to the ordinary p-value of the replication study if the uncertainty
of the original effect estimate is ignored. The framework proposed can als
o be used to determine the power or the required replication sample size to
achieve replication success. Numerical calculations highlight the difficul
ty of achieving replication success if the evidence from the original study
is only suggestive. An application to data from the Open Science Collabora
tion project on the replicability of psychological science illustrates the
methodology proposed.\n\n\nTo be published in Series A; for more infor
mation go to the Wiley Online Library.\n\n\nK. Rice (University of Washingt
on, Seattle), T. Bonnett (National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederic
k) and C. Krakauer (University of Washington, Seattle)\n\n\n‘Knowing the si
gns: a direct and generalizable motivation of two-sided tests’\n\n\nMany we
ll-known problems with two-sided p-values are due to their use in hypothesi
s tests, with ‘reject–accept’ conclusions about point null hypotheses. We p
resent an alternative motivation for p-value-based tests, viewing them as a
ssessments of only the sign of an underlying parameter, where we can conclu
de that the parameter is positive, negative or simply say nothing either wa
y. Our approach is decision theoretic, but—unusually—we consider the whole
set of possible utility functions available. Doing this we show how, in a s
pecific sense, close analogues of familiar one- and two-sided tests are alw
ays the optimal decision. We argue that this simplicity could aid non-exper
ts’ understanding and use of tests—and help them to think critically about
whether or not tests are appropriate tools for answering their questions of
interest. Several extensions are also considered, showing that the simple
idea of determining the signs of parameters yields a rich framework for inf
erence.\n\n\nTo be published in Series A; for more information go to t
he Wiley Online Library\n
CONTACT:https://events.rss.org.uk/rss/270/home
X-EXTRAINFO:This meeting takes place as part of the RSS 2019 Conference.\n\nIf you are
attending the conference please register as normal via the link above.\n\nI
f you just wish to attend the Discussion Meeting please email This email ad
dress is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view
it.
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DTSTAMP:20200224T182523Z
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20190904T172000
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