The programme of t
he seminar is as follows:

2 - 3 pm -- Prof. Jeremy Oakley

3 - 3.2
0 pm -- Refreshments

3.20 - 4.20 pm -- Prof. Paul Garthwaite

4.20
Examples of knowledge elicitation for UCLan ICONS project and Discussion (
Dr. Svetlana Tishkovskaya)**Prof. Jeremy Oakley (School o
f Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield)**~~Eliciting probability distributions with SHELF~~

~~Eliciting a prob
ability distribution is the process of extracting an expert's (or group of
experts') knowledge about some uncertainty quantity of interest, and choosi
ng a suitable distribution to represent the expert's uncertainty. I will de
scribe a general approach for elicitation: the Sheffield Elicitation Framew
ork (SHELF). SHELF is a behavioural aggregation method for eliciting a dist
ribution from a group of experts. The process involves a face-to-face discu
ssion between the experts, managed by a facilitator. Individual opinions fr
om all participants are first recorded, and then a single distribution is c
hosen following debate and discussion. Particular emphasis is placed on jus
tifying the chosen distribution in relation to available, documented eviden
ce. I will also demonstrate various (freely available) software tools that
can be used to support the process.~~**Prof. Paul Garthwait
e (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Open University)***Quantifying expert opinion about some sampling models that inc
lude covariates*

~~This talk will describe some elicitation methods for
quantifying expert opinion in the contexts of regression, categorical data
and generalized linear models. The methods all use interactive graphics to
elicit assessments from the expert and are implemented in (free) software.
The aim is to ask the expert to perform meaningful tasks and convert the ex
pertâ€™s assessments into a probability distribution that gives a useful repr
esentation of his or her opinions. Examples where methods have been used wi
ll be given. One example concerns a treatment pathway model that was develo
ped to examine the costs and benefits of the current bowel cancer service i
n England and to evaluate potential alternatives in service provision. To u
se the pathway model, various parameters and probability distributions had
to be specified. They could not all be determined from empirical evidence a
nd, instead, expert opinion was elicited in the form of probability distrib
utions that gave the required information.~~