On 4 September 2019, Jonathan Tawn (pictured) from the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Lancaster University, Andrew Parnell from the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University, and Thordis Thorarinsdottir from the Norwegian Computing Center participated in the Royal Statistical Society conference 2019 session on Climate Change. The contributed session was organised by the Environmental Statistics section of the Royal Statistical Society and made up part of the Environment and Spatial Statistics stream of sessions at the conference.
Speaking first, Jonathan Tawn noticed that when considering environmental data, the focus is often on the mean. His talk sought to answer what happens in the extreme and consider aggregates of regional versions of climate models against their global counterparts. He examined heatwaves and extreme sea waves to gain an understanding of how such events could become more common under climate change. Combining climate models in an ensemble provided extremes increasing as much as three times faster than the mean, in terms of changes in temperature.